摘要：针对电动汽车大规模应用对能源消耗和环境产生的不确定性影响，本文通过分析北京市公交运营的4种不同驱动类型客车：纯电动公交客车、混合动力客车、柴油客车和CNG客车在整个燃料生命周期（WTW）的能源消耗和排放，建立了基于物料能量守恒的生命周期评价模型，重点对化石能源消耗、CO2排放、CO排放、NOX排放、SO2排放和PM25排放这6项内容进行了深入研究，建立了能源价格、排放物处理成本以及车辆购置成本之间的计算模型，完成了不同驱动类型客车基于灰色系统理论的技术经济评价。
关键词：电动汽车；全寿命周期评价；能源消耗量；技术经济评价；灰色系统理论

Abstract: For largescale applications of electric vehicles have an uncertain impact on energy consumption and the environment, this paper analyzed energy consumption and emissions in the fuel life cycle (WTW) of four different types of buses operated by Beijing Public Transportation Group. The four different types of buses include pure electric buses, hybrid buses, diesel buses and CNG buses. The paper established a life cycle evaluation model based on energy conservation of materials, and conducted an in-depth study on fossil energy consumption, CO2 emissions, CO emissions, NOX emissions, SO2 emissions, and PM2.5 emissions. This paper built a calculation model of energy prices, emission treatment cost and vehicle acquisition cost, and completed technical and economic evaluation of buses with different drives based on Gray System Theory.
Key words: electric buses; life cycle evaluation; energy consumption; technical and economic evaluation; gray system theory